Glaciers and the Future of Cities

If in fact glaciers are melting at faster and faster rates, i.e. faster than even the gloomiest forecasting scientists predicted, then maybe it is in fact likely that our oceans will at some point in the next couple of dozen to hundred or so years flood the low lying areas. We'll all be, at our coastal edges, Holland or New Orleans.

If this happens, however, and ocean rise will be due to glacial water that once was ice, that water will be fresh water, not salt water, pushing up that rise.

Based on other predictions, this may be happening as fresh water becomes in less and less supply, due to rapidly growing urbanization and suburbanization, which is swallowing up ecosystems and watersheds, while putting increasing human demand on fresh water supplies.

Which may mean that technologies which desalinate fresh water may also give birth to technologies which can pull the fresh water from glacial melt out of the oceans.

After all, fresh water in oceans is going to affect the balance of life there. The salt water ocean life isn't going to need the fresh water, but people will. And people won't need the extra water inundating our coastal areas. So maybe this is an opportunity in disguise. Imagine the industries that could grow up around pulling that fresh water out of the rising oceans, restore the salt-fresh water balance in the oceans,

However, if this scenario is at all feasible, what will be the power behind the mechanisms that can pull excess fresh water from oceans to restore salt-fresh water balance and make glacial melt from oceans available for human use?

Will it be fossil fuels? As this scenario unfolds, fossil fuels will become less and less viable due to increasing global warming and concerns about global warming, and due to less and less availability of fossil fuels due to Peak Oil.

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First Organic Distributor in US Gets Solar System

"Veritable Vegetable, a San Francisco-based company that has distributed organic produce since 1974, has just gotten an upgrade that will promote its sustainable agenda even further: it's had a 560-panel, 106 kilowatt solar electric system installed on top of its main warehouse in the city. And it's poised to help make one of the first green voices in the American business community even greener.



"Along with supplying a steady stream of renewable electricity, the solar system will have the added benefit of saving the company around $60,000 a year. Which means the system should pay for itself in 5 years, and supply free electricity for at least an additional 25—good news for Veritable's bottom line." Oldest Organic Produce Company in the US Gets a Solar-Powered Upgrade

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Car Sharing, Ride SharingZipCar, GoLocoMESH Wireless Networks, Congestion Pricing

TED Talks Robin Chase: Getting cars off the road and data into the skies - with Ad Hoc, Peer-to-Peer, Self-Configuring Wireless Networks, aka MESH

Robin Chase on Wired

ZipCar

GoLoco



Congestion Pricing

Congestion Pricing on Wikipedia

Ray LaHood - Conservative Republican from Peoria, HQ of Caterpillar, Embraces Racial Idea of Mileage Tax, Which Obama Nixes

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Renault-Nissan, "A Better Place" andNEC Tokin (Li-ion Car Battery Manufacturer)Partner for EV Cars, Infrastructure

A Better Place is an Israeli company building EV infrastructure
Project Better Place & Renault-Nissan to Electrify Israel ~
Head of Renault-Nissan Opens YouTube Video from AutoChannel January 2008:



Israeli car company A Better Place -
Dafna Berezovski, sales and marketing manager - May 2008:



Nissan and NEC to clean up electric car market with more powerful Li-ion cells - 2007



Israel Will Be First Country to Mass Market Electric Car - Target 2011
Anticipation of Decreasing Israeli Coal Use by 50%:



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Town Totnes, Reimagining Money, Social Finance

Founder of Odwallah with the Founder of Visa International:

Reimagining Money, writing by the Organizational Culture director at RSF Social Finance:

Transition Towns like Totnes, Devon, UK and Sebastopol, CA, US:

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Bank "Stress Tests";Private Equity Down 15-50%;Wall Street Journal Writer on "End of Wall Street As We Know It"

"Big investors like pension funds and endowments, licking their wounds from miserable returns last year, are bracing for more.

"In the next few weeks, private-equity firms -- which buy companies, take them private, restructure and resell them -- will report declines of 15% to 50% for the fourth quarter of 2008 amid the deep economic recession, analysts and investors say. Two big private-equity firms already have reported sizable declines in the value of their hard-to-price holdings.

"Those drops in turn will further batter the performance of public pension funds, foundations and endowments. These institutional investors had barreled into private-equity investing ..." Big Investors Face Deeper Losses As Private-Equity Shops Revalue Assets, Institutions Brace for Worst - Mar 2009

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"'I don't think there is a pass-fail on the stress test,'" a government official said. "'This stress test is not a test for who is insolvent or not.'"

"Rather, government officials say the tests will be used to gauge how much extra capital big banks might need as a buffer to continue lending through the economic downturn. The Treasury Department said Tuesday that it would invest an additional $100 billion and $200 billion into banks on top of the $250 billion it has already said it would put in.

"Lawmakers, analysts, and some bankers argue the banking system is worse off than many acknowledge. David Burg, a portfolio manager at Alpine Mutual Funds in Purchase N.Y., said a severe stress test could show that 98% of banks "need a lot more capital." Reviews, 'Stress Tests' May Reveal Deeper Bank Troubles - Feb 2009

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"Written by seasoned financial writer Dave Kansas, The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It makes sense of the madness, revealing how the crisis is affecting our financial lives and what steps we should take to inform and protect ourselves. This comprehensive, practical and accessible book delivers:

  * An inside look at the financial wizardry, easy money and overconfidence that drove the subprime crisis, credit crunch and market meltdown

  * An analysis of the New World Order—the banking behemoths, the government's role—and how it will affect Main Street

  * A look at what's safe: a rundown of which investments are protected and which aren't and how fund protection has changed

  * Individual investor strategies: stocks, bonds, retirement and real estate (and whether you should think seriously about 'the mattress') ...

"Dave Kansas is Editor at Large of FiLife.com, a new online personal finance joint venture between Dow Jones and IAC Corp. Prior to that, Kansas spent four years as editor of The Wall Street Journal's Money & Investing section and was editor in chief of TheStreet.com during its formative years, and he is the author of two previous books, The Wall Street Journal's Complete Money & Investing Guidebook and TheStreet.com Guide to Investing in the Internet Era. He and his wife, Monica, live in New York City." The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It: What You Need to Know About the Greatest Financial Crisis of Our Time--and How to Survive It (Paperback)

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When economy bottoms out, how will we know?

"... the economy always recovers. It runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics, some of them buried deep beneath the headlines, to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three markets — housing, jobs and stocks — and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.

"None of them expects it to come anytime soon." When economy bottoms out, how will we know?

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12,000 at Youth SummitEnvironmental Conference onClimate Change, Clean Energy Revolution

"... an estimated 12,000 young people were at the D.C. Convention Center for Power Shift ’09, the largest youth summit on climate change in history. College and high school students from all fifty states, all Canadian provinces, as well as a dozen countries, came together to discuss organizing for a clean energy revolution on the local and national levels." Power Shift ’09: 12,000+ Students Attend Largest Youth Summit on Climate Change in US History

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ECO:nomics Conference, Ford, the New Green Economy

Head of Ford Motor Company at Dow Jones' ECO:nomics Conference:

"'We really have lost a generation,' he said, turning back to the issue at hand. In the past, Ford 'did not have a consistency of purpose,' he said, but is now committed to producing vehicles that are 'best in class.'

"He reiterated that Ford’s mix of vehicles will do a 180 in coming years, with light cars—rather than trucks and SUVs–representing two-thirds of the automaker’s lineup, as rising energy prices make fuel-efficient cars a priority for consumers." "Ford’s Mulally: Replacing the Lost Generation One Customer at a Time"



Head of Sierra Club: ECO:nomics Conference, Disappointingly,
Largely Still Not Moving Past the Economy vs. Ecology Debate

"Santa Barbara, CA -- The 'ECO:nomics' conference was billed as an opportunity to learn about the economic opportunities of a new green economy and 'creating environmental capital,' and Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal certainly pulled together a stellar resource pool -- not only Al Gore and Amory Lovins but also Ford CEO Alan Mulally, Anne Mulcahy of Xerox, Boone Pickens, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, the heads of three of the nation's biggest electrical utilities (Duke, AEP, PG&E), and Bill McDonough.

"But while the Journal's deputy managing editor, Alan Murray, conceded that this year's conference took place in an entirely different economic climate than last year's, it seemed that for the Journal and Dow Jones it was 'forward to the past.' Huge chunks of time were given to enviro skeptics like Bjorn Lomborg and Vaclav Klaus but, far worse, the Journal team interviewing the luminaries seemed firmly stuck in the paradigm of 'now that we have a global economic crisis, surely we can't afford this environmental stuff anymore.'" Dow Jones Misses It

2007 Article About Carl Pope speaking on "Changing the U.S. National Agenda"

" ... a huge part of society’s resources will be devoted to the reality that climate change is happening. For example, I was in Chicago recently. You know what the biggest challenge facing Chicago with climate change is? Termites. They don’t have termites; it’s too cold in the winter. So every building in Chicago has been built without any consideration about protecting them from termites. The whole city could just fall down.

"Cities like Santa Barbara are essentially engineered on the model of a roof to the gutter. Water falls on the roof and then you get it into the gutter, down into the storm drain, and to the ocean. We are going to need to re-engineer all of our urban areas into a model of a sponge. They are going to have to catch every drop and store it if we want to survive....

"The only way carbon dioxide is ever removed from the atmosphere is by living creatures: oceans, grasslands, forests, and soils. We have never really thought about the degree to which soil degradation is now a climate problem." Sierra Club’s Executive Director Carl Pope on Global Warming, Water, and Al Gore ... The Green Pope

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Recession, Depression, Contraction - Semantics or Clarification?

"WASHINGTON (AP) — A Depression doesn't have to be Great — bread lines, rampant unemployment, a wipeout in the stock market. The economy can sink into a milder depression, the kind spelled with a lowercase 'd.'

"And it may be happening now.

"The trouble is, unlike recessions, which are easy to define, there are no firm rules for what makes a depression. Everyone at least seems to agree there hasn't been one since the epic hardship of the 1930s.

"But with each new hard-times headline, most recently an alarming economic contraction of 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, it seems more likely that the next depression is on its way.

"'We're probably in a depression now. But it's not going to be acknowledged until years go by. Because you have to see it behind you,' said Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland.

"No one disputes that the current economic downturn qualifies as a recession. Recessions have two handy definitions, both in effect now — two straight quarters of economic contraction, or when the National Bureau of Economic Research makes the call.

"Declaring a depression is much trickier.

"By one definition, it's a downturn of three years or more with a 10 percent drop in economic output and unemployment above 10 percent. The current downturn doesn't qualify yet: 15 months old and 7.6 percent unemployment. But both unemployment and the 6.2 percent contraction for late last year could easily worsen.

"Another definition says a depression is a sustained recession during which the populace has to dispose of tangible assets to pay for everyday living. For some families, that's happening now." "It may not be another Depression, but it might be another depression"



"International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the world's advanced economies -- the U.S., Western Europe and Japan -- are 'already in depression,' and that the IMF could slash its global growth forecasts further. The "worst cannot be ruled out,' he said." IMF Chief Says Nations in 'Depression'



"What Does Contraction Mean?

"A phase of the business cycle in which the economy as a whole is in decline. More specifically, contraction occurs after the business cycle peaks, but before it becomes a trough. According to most economists, a contraction is said to occur when a country's real GDP has declined for two or more consecutive quarters.

"Investopedia explains Contraction

"For most people, a contraction in the economy can be source of economic hardship; as the economy plunges into a contraction, people start losing their jobs. While no economic contraction lasts forever, it is very difficult to assess just how long a downtrend will continue before it reverses because history has shown that a contraction can last for many years (such as during the Great Depression)." Investopedia: Contraction



"What Does Depression Mean?

"A severe and prolonged recession characterized by inefficient economic productivity, high unemployment and falling price levels.

"Investopedia explains Depression

"In times of depression, consumers' confidence and investments decrease, causing the economy to shut down. The classic example of this occurred in the 1930s, when the Great Depression shook the global economy." Investopedia: Depression



"There is an old joke among economists that states:

"A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

"A depression is when you lose your job.

"The difference between the two terms is not very well understood for one simple reason: There is not a universally agreed upon definition. If you ask 100 different economists to define the terms recession and depression, you would get at least 100 different answers. I will try to summarize both terms and explain the differences between them in a way that almost all economists could agree with.

"Recession: The Newspaper Definition

"The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.

"This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons. First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.

"Recession: The BCDC Definition

"The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year." "Recession? Depression? - What's the difference? - What's a recession? - How do we know if we're in one?"

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Coal ...

"Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, [Washington, DC's] nonvoting member of Congress, said she's been fighting against the power plant since taking office nearly two decades ago.

"'It has poisoned untold numbers of people who live in the District of Columbia,' she said.

"Norton and others at the rally said they were encouraged by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who last week called for converting the plant entirely to natural gas in a letter to the Architect of the Capitol, which oversees the maintenance and operation of the Capitol Complex.



"The protest on energy and climate came as Washington began digging out from its largest snowfall of the season. Organizers noted that climate change causes more extreme weather, and they said the issue is important enough that people were willing to brave the cold." "Capitol Power Plant: A Symbolic Clean Energy Hurdle"



"... I live five subway stops from the U.S. Capitol. My home is right here. There's nothing symbolic -- for me -- about trying to keep the tidal Potomac River out of my living room and off the National Mall where my son takes school trips. There's nothing symbolic about fighting for homeowner's insurance in a region where Allstate and other insurers have already begun to pull out due to bigger Atlantic hurricanes. And what's vague about the local plant species like deadnettles and Bluebells that now bloom four to six weeks earlier in D.C.-area gardens thanks to dramatic warming.

"For citizens like me who live amid the symbolic trappings of D.C., we stand as proof that climate change is everywhere, right now, and no one is immune, not even the citizens and leaders of the world's most powerful city." "See you in jail: It's not symbolism when you live in D.C. - Why I'm joining 2,000 people for a global warming mass arrest on Monday"



"'Next-generation coal is going to need to continue to be part of our energy future for this country,' said GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, chairman of the National Governors Association.

"'It is abundant, it is available, it is Americanized in the sense that we control the supply,' he said Saturday. 'We would be incomplete and doing a disservice to the debate and the ultimate policy direction that we're going to take if we don't envision coal being part of that.'

"Next-generation coal typically refers to capturing and somehow sequestering or storing the carbon that coal produces. It also envisions reducing or eliminating emissions as coal is burned." "Governors: Coal must be part of energy debate"



"The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE) advocates public policies that advance environmental improvement, economic prosperity, and energy security. ACCCE believes that the robust utilization of coal – America’s most abundant energy resource – is essential to providing affordable, reliable electricity for millions of U.S. consumers and a growing domestic economy. Further, ACCCE is committed to continued and enhanced U.S. leadership in developing and deploying new, advanced clean coal technologies that protect and improve the environment.



"Coal provides half of our electricity and must continue to be part of our balanced energy mix." American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity

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Michigan Promotes Alternative Energy & Future Industry

In what seems like an amazingly comprehensive and optimistic website reminding us that Michigan is the home to the automotive industry and a part of that Midwestern part of the country where people are accustomed to making and building things, Michigan's business attraction strategy is spelled out in some rather exciting detail, indicating a high level of partnering between business, education and the government there: http://www.michiganadvantage.org/Default.aspx



Alternative Energy in the State of Michigan is one of 6 Michigan growth sectors heavily pitched in this extensive presentation.

Subcategories within Alternative Energy:

Wind - "The wind energy industry includes not just power generation, but also the manufacturing of parts for wind turbines and structures and their assembly."

Solar Technology Manufacturing - "With our advanced manufacturing infrastructure, high-tech workforce and robust scientific community, we lead the world in developing solar technologies to meet the needs of the exploding solar energy market. Drawn by this scientific boom and an engineering community that numbers over 65,000, global solar energy powerhouses have made their headquarters here."

Advanced Energy Storage ranging from battery development and recycling stimulated by partnership with the automotive industry, to "advanced energy storage technology toward increasing energy efficiency on a smart grid".

It seems that the State of Michigan is finding ways to revitalize its manufacturing economy by providing leadership in the emerging energy economy.

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John Doerr's Emotional Talk at 2007 TED Conference

"'I don't think we're going to make it,' John Doerr proclaims, in an emotional talk about climate change and investment. Spurred on by his daughter, who demanded he fix the mess the world is heading for, he and his partners.

"John Doerr, a partner in famed VC firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, made upwards of $1 billion picking dot-com stars like Amazon, Google, Compaq and Netscape. (He also picked some flops, like Go Corporation and the scandal-ridden MyCFO.com.) He was famously quoted saying, 'The Internet is the greatest legal creation of wealth in history,' right before the dot-com crash.

"But now he's back, warning that carbon-dioxide-sputtering, gas-powered capitalism will destroy us all, and that going green may be the 'biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.' So Kleiner Perkins has invested $200 million in so-called greentech, a combination of startups that are pioneering alternative energy, waste remediation and other schemes to prevent the coming environmental calamity. But Doerr is afraid that it might be too little, too late.

"'[John Doerr] is, by all accounts, the most influential venture capitalist of his generation.' - Fast Company Magazine"

John's presentation was just under 18 minutes and can be viewed here: "Talks: John Doerr: Seeking salvation and profit in greentech"

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Alberta Tar Sands

"Environmental Defence just released a new report on the Alberta Oil Sands, calling it the most destructive project on Earth." Tar Sands: The Most Destructive Project on Earth

"What we know is that oil sands create a big carbon footprint. So the dilemma that Canada faces, the United States faces, and China and the entire world faces is how do we obtain the energy that we need to grow our economies in a way that is not rapidly accelerating climate change." Obama Admits Canadian Tar Sands’ Carbon Footprint a Problem (Phew...)

"Some are calling it a “smear job”, while others are applauding the National Geographic’s rather sobering 20-page publication on the Alberta tar sands, titled 'Scraping Bottom.'" National Geographic Slams Tar Sands – Canadian Politicians Pissed

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Large Scale Energy Stability & Costs: Solar, Wind, Nuclear

"Due to the larger magnitude of solar PV power output fluctuations relative to those of wind at time scales shorter than approximately 31⁄2 hours, the costs of large scale solar PV integration are likely to be larger than those of wind." Carnegie Mellon Study: Large Scale Solar vs. Large Scale Wind Power



"Solar Electric Energy demand has grown consistently by 20-25% per annum over the past 20 years. This has been against a backdrop of rapidly declining costs and prices.

"This decline has been driven by a) increasing efficiency of solar cells b) manufacturing technology improvements, and c) economies of scale. The photovoltaic solar industry now globally generates around $10bn revenues. This includes the sale of solar modules, its associated equipment and the installation of those systems. In 2001, just under 350 Megawatts of solar equipment were sold to add to the solar equipment already generating clean energy." Solar Energy Industry Statistics: Growth



"For nuclear power, the modernization is intended to produce dramatic differences: plants that will run more than 90 percent of the hours in a year and last for 60 years or longer. The ones in service today ran only about 60 percent of the time when they were new and were assumed to have only a 40-year life. But utilities are already signing long-term contracts for large solar generators, and wind turbines are being erected at an unprecedented rate. Those alternatives operate fewer hours of the year, but with no burden of fuel cost or fuel-disposal problems the price of power they produce could be low enough to squeeze nuclear power out of the mix." Can Nuclear Compete? - Scientific American

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Big Picture Small World - Movies

This site presents online movies that comprehensively cover a variety of worldview level topics to help viewers navigate these issues with clarity. Movies deal with Hunger, Peace, the Environment, Youth, Climate, Poverty.... target audience is basically - schools, colleges and organizations.



Big Picture Small World is led by Medard Gabel, who was mentored back in the day by Buckminster Fuller. Gabel has consulted the UN, the World Bank and numerous large corporations. His book, Earth, Energy and Everyone first inspired the author of this blog on energy issues in the early 1970s.

Gabel was a cofounder with Buckminster Fuller and others of the World Game Institute which was proposed as an alternative to war games, also known as military exercises, in which warfare operations are simulated and studied. It was Fuller's idea to offer World Peace Games in their place. The Big Picture Small World Movies

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Solar Photovoltaics - Installations Growing Rapidly

From MIT's Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science:

"Solar photovoltaic power generators, also known as solar cells, convert sunlight directly into electricity. The installation of solar cells is growing rapidly (30% per year) and solar cells are projected to become an increasingly significant source of energy for our society. Because of the vast quantity of energy available from the sun, solar energy has the potential to scale to meet our entire energy demands." Solar photovoltaics

The graph above enlarged here charts:

-- Installed Solar
-- World Electricity Capacity
-- Primary Energy Consumption

The above link found while Googling "microenergy" - 22,700,000 results - haven't navigated all those links o.c. - wondering if this level of Google results might be any cause for optimism on the energy front.

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Advice from Warren Buffet's Investment Mentor

Principle No. 1: Always Invest With a Margin of Safety
Principle No. 2: Expect Volatility and Profit From It
Principle No. 3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are

"Benjamin Graham: Three Timeless Principles - Warren Buffett is the world's richest human. But he may owe it all to his teacher Benjamin Graham."

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Robert Johnson, Amy Domini, Daniel Gross

"Bill Moyers talks with economist Robert Johnson, who decodes this week's news on the bank bailout, with a hard look at the international ramifications of the plan and a discussion of why nationalization has become a flash point."

"Robert Johnson, former managing director of Soros Fund Management and an expert in emerging markets, believes the government's approach ... wastes taxpayer money and won't solve the financial crisis. The government's approach, Johnson argues, is too cautious. Recent developments in Central Europe only reinforce that the world faces a possible economic collapse, Johnson told Bill Moyers on the JOURNAL, in which 'the architecture of the integrated world would be shattered.'"

"Johnson calls for more drastic intervention, but thinks nationalization is the wrong word, 'People talk about nationalization. I just call it restructuring. Restructuring is a part of capitalism. That's how the airlines get restructured when they go through bankruptcy. Or you might have to deal with the auto industry, how you deal with venture capital projects. Do the same thing with the banks.'" Robert Johnson, former managing director of Soros Fund Management and Former Chief Economist of the Senate Banking Committee



"In this struggling economy, boomers are rightfully worried about the funds they were counting on to carry them through the rest of their lives. Will they be able to afford their own retirement?



"NOW turns to two experts for help and insight: Amy Domini, a pioneer in the field of socially responsible investing; and journalist Daniel Gross, who covers the economy for Slate and Newsweek." "Retirement at Risk" - Amy Domini of Domini Social Investments and Daniel Gross of Newsweek On PBS' Now

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"Coal Industry - The Most Trusted Name in Coal"

"Coen Brothers YouTube Spoof on 'Clean Coal'

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Volcker, Soros: Where Have All the Fundamentals Gone?

Paul Volcker, George Soros: A faster slide, worldwide, than in the Great Depression:

"'One year ago, we would have said things were tough in the United States, but the rest of the world was holding up,' Volcker told a conference featuring Nobel laureates, economists and investors at Columbia University in New York. "'The rest of the world has not held up.'"

"In fact, the 81-year-old former chairman of the Federal Reserve said, "'I don't remember any time, maybe even the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast.'" "Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than the Great Depression"



"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.

"Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.

"He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.

"'We witnessed the collapse of the financial system,'" Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom.'" "Soros Sees No Bottom For Financial 'Collapse'"



Fears of massive migrations, extended world wars - due to climate change:

"CAPE TOWN, South Africa — If we don't deal with climate change decisively, "'what we're talking about then is extended world war,'" the eminent economist said.

"His audience Saturday, small and elite, had been stranded here by bad weather and were talking climate. They couldn't do much about the one, but the other was squarely in their hands. And so, Lord Nicholas Stern was telling them, was the potential for mass migrations setting off mass conflict.

"'Somehow we have to explain to people just how worrying that is,'" the British economic thinker said." "Lord Nicholas Stern Paints Dire Climate Change Scenario: Mass Migrations, Extended World War"



Meanwhile Obama goes for halving the national debt within 4 years:

"President Obama is putting the finishing touches on an ambitious first budget that seeks to cut the federal deficit in half over the next four years, primarily by raising taxes on businesses and the wealthy and by slashing spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, administration officials said." "Obama to Unveil and Ambitious Budget Plan"



"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke takes center stage this week, as he goes up to Capitol Hill to present the Fed’s twice-yearly Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. Current circumstances are starkly different from those surrounding the Fed’s last report in July. Back then, the Fed projected the economy would grow between 1% and 1.6% in 2008 and between 2% and 2.8% in 2009, while it was concerned about energy-fueled inflation. The numbers Bernanke will present to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday will show the economy contracted about 0.5% last year, along with a projected decline between 0.5% and 1.3% this year. And now the Fed’s worry is deflation, not inflation." "Vital Signs: Bernanke Speaks to Congress"

"He told politicians on Capitol Hill that if White House fiscal stimulus proposals and the continued financial assistance from the Fed have their desired effect, the American economy should begin to grow again in the second half of this year.

"Mr Bernanke said: 'Only if that is the case, in my view there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery.'" "Ben Bernanke: best hope is recovery in 2010 -
The Federal Reserve chairman said that the US economy will only recover if Washington’s bail-out plans succeed this year"

Bernanke's predictions about housing are reviewed along with forecasts by Greenspan and others about housing back in January 2008:

"Check out this story over at CNN/Money about just how bad some economists did with their 2007 housing predictions. Of course the nation's last two chief economists, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are at the top of the list." "Bad Housing Predictions of 2007"

"The Fed expects the jobless rate to rise to close to 9 percent this year, and probably remain above normal levels of around 5 percent into 2011. The recession, which started in December 2007, already has killed a net total of 3.6 million jobs.

"Fed policymakers think that a 'full recovery' of the economy is likely to take more than two or three years, Bernanke said." "Fed chief: U.S. suffering 'severe contraction'"

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Crisis of Credit Explained in Video

11 minute video on Vimeo pictorially explains how the credit crisis developed starting tracing it to the dotcom boom and bust and Federal Reserve policies. It does not go into banking deregulation but does illustrate in particular how subprime mortgages, credit default swaps, and credit debt obligations, became (pardon the pun) household phrases. "The Crisis of Credit Visualized"

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90% Pure Energy Solutions?

An outreach and strategy consultant with a background in engineering and real estate who consults on land use issues and is involved in community energy policy, suggested to me that solutions to energy needs need at least the following components:

-- They need to be utterly practical, like making sure there's infrastructure in place for electric outlets in parking garages so that owners of plug-in hybrid cars can commute without fossil fuel burning and then recharge their vehicles while at work so they can get home - in those non-fossil fuel burning cars. And yes, there are things to think about with regards to fossil-fuel burning and electricity generation to run plug-in hybrids as a separate issue.

-- Utilize the engineering smarts within existing utilities and bureaucracies. Oh, if only.

-- Go for 90% pure energy solutions that can work now, with a 20-year planning outlook, vs. waiting for the 100% pure energy solutions and fighting over what those are.

-- Hybridize all systems. This can involve combining solar, wind and geothermal in the same system, possibly even with a fossil-fuels generated backup. This way you can deal with 24 hour and year round availability - along with capacity.

-- Look for community-based, even neighborhood-based solutions. You can have a combination system that distributes energy within a several-block radius. Especially if you're located close to an energy-grid substation.

-- Look for the best possible ratios that are -currently available- and will cover best-case scenarios for several years to come - in terms of net energy between btu's in and delivery out.

(note: image for this blog entry comes from here)

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Innovation, Technology, Start-Ups, Clean Tech

Many Tech Start-Ups are calling it quits ... and are being sold for much less than such companies have sold before. "As Funding Dries Up, Fledgling Silicon Valley Firms Are Shutting Down; Fears of Chill on Innovation"

But maybe some energy start-ups are going to make it and maybe make it big. "Solazyme joins algae elite with additional $45M"

"No ponds, no fresh water, no harvesting, no oils. One algal biofuel company says it's found a way to convert algae directly into ethanol on the cheap." "Turning algae into ethanol, and gold"

"Over February 23-25, 2009, more than 800 of the world’s clean technology sector leaders—representing over $3 trillion in capital—together with entrepreneurs, scientists and policy-makers, will convene in San Francisco for Cleantech Forum XXI." "Cleantech Forum XXI: The flagship event convening global clean technology leaders"



Many VC people do -not- have experience in energy or utilities. This is not going to be as natural a transition as semiconductors to personal computers to the internet. And it's going to take 25 years, and there may be a lot of busts along the way. Two-minute video... "VCs not knowing what they're doing"

Schwartz, who did Scenario Planning for Royal Dutch Shell, also challenges assumptions many have about Peak Oil ...

"'We don't know how much is out there,' he said today. 'And they tend to be very conservative, these estimates. And technology changes, and that opens up new reserves deep offshore. When I was at Shell, we could only drill into a thousand feet of water. Today, they're drilling into 10,000 feet of water, and 20,000 feet below that.'

"Peak oil proponents point out that no meaningfully-sized new reserves have been discovered in years, that the oil that is known is relatively finite, and believe it will become too expensive and resource-intensive to produce meaningful amounts of petrochemical products from other known sources of oil like the Canadian tar sands.

"'We are not going to run out of oil before the issue of climate change drives change. It'll be costly oil. But it'll be climate change catastrophes [such as sudden, unexpected displacement of large numbers of people, and massive property damage], and more expensive oil, not the fact that we're running out of oil, that will drive change,' according to Schwartz." "Peak oil "wrong," says Schwartz"

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Data Center Power Usage to Grow by 40% by 2010

"Data centers house everything from this blog, for example, to the massive Google search index (which is comprised of an estimated 450,000 servers).... Data centers are big dollar, and the level of security is intense. Data centers are a study in how to secure an industrial facility.... In a study released in February, Jonathan Koomey, a researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Labs, indicates that the power consumption in the world's data centers will grow by 40% in the next 3 years after doubling in the past five." "Data Center Power Usage to Grow by 40% by 2010"



"We're now firmly in an interconnected and digital world, and that means lots and lots of servers.... 61 billion (with a 'b') kilowatt-hours, and that's for 2006, back when most people were just starting to discover Youtube ... when demand is lower, the algorithms know that they can power down a certain number of servers. There's a lot of savings right there. But it's the sensors that make the system smart enough to power down the right servers to maximize savings, making the air conditioning work more efficiently (about half of the energy used by a data center is for cooling)." "Saving Energy in Data Centers with Smart Sensors and Algorithms"

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Oceans, Coral, Climate Change, Sea Change

Environmental Impacts on Deep Oceans Could Have Drastic Impacts on Climate

"A rise in sea levels isn't the only impact global warming is having on the world's oceans. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change is also affecting ocean currents and the chemistry of the seas, with potentially catastrophic results.... Some ocean scientists believe that if action isn't taken quickly to address climate change, our oceans could face their biggest shock in 100 million years." "Sea Change" on "Now" on PBS

"Scientists now predict with a great degree of certainty that unless we switch to a clean energy economy, climate change will result in increased severity and intensity of storms, melting sea ice, rising sea level, changes in food production and drinking water availability and importantly, the acidification of our oceans and a mass extinction of corals." "Our Oceans: What Could Happen" on "Now" on PBS

Coral Reef Ecosystems Affected by Rising Ocean Temperatures

"Almost half the coral reef ecosystems in United States territory are in poor or fair condition, mostly because of rising ocean temperatures, according to a government report... "NOAA report: US coral reefs in severe decline" (Associated Press)

"Researchers who studied a string of Pacific Ocean atolls are painting the first detailed picture of pristine coral reefs and how they can be disrupted by people - particularly, they said, by fishing." "Coral reefs without human intervention found to be healthier"

Oceanographer Sylvia Earle's 11th Hours Talk at TED

Aquanaut Team Leader and founder of companies and nonprofits related to the ocean - Sylvia Earle - leader of National Geographic's Sustainable Seas expeditions - prize winner at the 2009 TED conference "TED Talks ~ Sylvia Earle: Here's how to protect the blue heart of the planet (TED Prize winner!)"

Pew Charitable Trusts Oceans Commission

In the first thorough review of ocean policy in 34 years, the Pew Oceans Commission released a host of recommendations in 2003 to guide the way in which the federal government will successfully manage America’s marine environment. The report found that more than 60 percent of America’s coastal rivers and bays are degraded by nutrient runoff. Crucial species like groundfish and salmon are under assault from overfishing. Invasive species are establishing themselves in the nation’s coastal waters.

The commission recommended

* improving the management of the nation’s commercial fisheries;
* establishing networks of marine reserves in coastal waters;
* increasing the involvement of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in environmental restoration;
* applying strong environmental standards to fish farms; and
* regulating the discharge of waste by cruise ships.

The Pew Oceans Commission concluded its work, but its findings are still available online to aid researchers and policy makers. "Pew Oceans Commission"

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